Canada Immigration Update: NPR Decline Impacts 2025 Growth

Canada’s Population Shrinks in Q3 2025: What’s Behind the Decline?

• Canada’s population dropped by over 76,000 between July and October 2025 — the first quarterly decline of the year.
• The decline is largely driven by a sharp drop in non-permanent residents (NPRs), especially international students and temporary workers.
• Ontario and British Columbia saw the largest population decreases; Alberta and Nunavut were the only provinces to grow.
• Policy changes like LMIA moratoriums, study permit caps, and stricter work permit rules are behind the decline.
• Permanent immigration levels remained steady, helping to cushion the overall population drop.
• The federal government aims to reduce temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2027.

Introduction: A Surprising Shift in Canada’s Population Trends

For the first time in 2025, Canada’s population took a step backward. According to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada, the country saw its population shrink by 76,068 people — or about 0.2% — between July 1 and October 1. While that may sound small, it’s a notable shift for a country that has been experiencing steady, even record-breaking growth in recent years.

So, what’s going on? Let’s dive into the numbers and unpack what’s causing this population slide — and what it could mean for the future.

What the Latest Population Data Shows

The population dip in Q3 2025 marks a departure from the strong growth Canada experienced in 2023 and 2024. In fact, in Q3 2023, Canada recorded its fastest quarterly growth rate since 1957 — a full 1%. Even a year ago, in Q3 2024, the population still climbed by 0.6%. Compare that to today’s -0.2%, and the trend is clear: growth is slowing, and in this case, reversing.

Here’s how the provinces and territories fared during this period:

• Ontario: -0.4%
• British Columbia: -0.3%
• Manitoba: -0.2%
• Northwest Territories: -0.2%
• Alberta and Nunavut: +0.2% (the only provinces/territories to grow)

Several other regions remained flat or saw marginal declines. It’s clear that something significant is shifting across the country — and it all comes back to immigration.

What’s Causing the Decline? A Closer Look at Non-Permanent Residents

The biggest factor behind the population drop is a steep decline in non-permanent residents (NPRs), including international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum claimants.

In Q3 2025, the number of NPRs dropped by 176,479 — the largest quarterly decrease since Statistics Canada began tracking this data in 1971. That’s more than triple the decline seen in Q1 (-55,194) and Q2 (-58,719) of the same year.

The total number of NPRs fell from 3,024,216 (about 7.3% of the population) on July 1 to 2,847,737 (6.8%) by October 1.

This drop is mainly due to:

• Expired permits: Outflows (people leaving or losing status) hit a record-high 339,505, while inflows (new permits issued) totaled just 163,026.
• Declines in key groups:
  • Study permit holders only: -73,682
  • Work and study permit holders: -67,616
  • Work permit holders only: -35,231

Ontario and British Columbia saw the biggest losses in international students, which aligns with their status as top destinations for newcomers.

Interestingly, not all temporary residents are declining. The number of asylum claimants and protected persons actually rose by 7,324, reaching a record-high of 504,767. This group has grown for 15 straight quarters, although the pace of that growth has slowed.

Permanent Immigration Holding Steady

While the drop in NPRs is significant, permanent immigration remains strong. Canada welcomed 102,867 new permanent residents in Q3 2025 — a number consistent with previous quarters and aligned with the country’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

This steady flow of permanent immigrants helped offset some of the population loss from declining temporary residents — but not enough to prevent an overall dip.

If you’re thinking about permanent immigration pathways, now is a great time to explore your options. For example, if you’re interested in settling in Manitoba, you may want to check out the Manitoba PNP and see how your profile scores.

Why Are Non-Permanent Resident Numbers Falling?

The federal government has introduced several immigration policy changes over the past two years aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents in Canada. These changes are now being felt across the country.

Here are the major policy updates contributing to the decline:

• Low-Wage LMIA Moratorium: Employers can no longer apply for low-wage Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) in regions where unemployment is 6% or higher. Without an LMIA, hiring or renewing temporary foreign workers becomes difficult.
• Limits on Spousal Open Work Permits: These permits are now restricted to spouses of certain international students and skilled foreign workers. Eligibility depends on occupation type, program, and permit duration.
• PGWP Changes: New eligibility rules for the Post-Graduation Work Permit include mandatory language testing and restricted access for certain fields of study.
• Study Permit Cap: For 2025, the number of study permit applications was capped at 550,162, with only 437,000 permits expected to be issued. That’s a 10% drop compared to 2024.

These measures are part of a broader federal goal: reducing temporary residents to just 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027.

Final Thoughts: A Turning Point for Canadian Immigration?

Canada’s population dip in Q3 2025 is more than a statistical blip — it’s a sign of shifting government priorities and the real-world effects of immigration policy changes. While permanent immigration continues to support long-term growth, the dramatic drop in temporary residents is reshaping the demographic landscape, especially in provinces like Ontario and B.C.

If you’re currently navigating Canada’s immigration system — whether as a student, worker, or someone looking for permanent residency — staying informed is key. Policy changes can impact your options, timelines, and eligibility.

Curious about how these changes affect your immigration plans? Explore our resources on study permits, work permits, and PR pathways to stay ahead.

Want to know how your province is responding? Check out our guide to provincial nominee programs for the latest updates.

Have questions or need help calculating your eligibility? Try our MPNP Points Calculator to get started.

As always, we’ll keep you posted as more data becomes available and policies evolve. Thanks for reading, and take care out there — eh?