Canada’s 2025 Foreign Worker Intake Falls Short of Targets
Canada’s Foreign Worker Arrivals in 2025 Expected to Fall Short—Already Reflecting 2026 Immigration Targets
Canada’s intake of foreign workers in 2025 is shaping up to be significantly below the federal government’s stated targets—by over 100,000 workers, if current trends continue. In fact, the number of arrivals so far this year already aligns more closely with the 2026 targets set out in the latest Immigration Levels Plan.
So, what’s behind this sharp drop in foreign worker admissions? Let’s break it down.
Key Highlights
- Canada is projected to admit around 202,923 foreign workers in 2025—well short of the 367,750 target.
- This year’s arrival numbers are more in line with the 2026 target of 230,000 foreign workers.
- The biggest drop is seen in the International Mobility Program (IMP), with an expected shortfall of over 140,000 workers.
- New government policies introduced in 2024 and 2025 are aimed at reducing temporary resident numbers.
- These changes are already having an impact on rental prices and housing demand in major cities.
2025 Foreign Worker Admissions Are Falling Behind
According to the federal government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada was expected to welcome 367,750 new foreign workers in 2025. This included 82,000 under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and 285,750 under the International Mobility Program (IMP).
But based on current arrival numbers from January to August 2025, only 154,515 workers have arrived through these two streams. If this trend continues through the rest of the year, total arrivals will likely cap at around 202,923.
That’s a difference of nearly 165,000 fewer workers than the original target.
Monthly Arrival Breakdown
Let’s take a quick look at how arrivals have played out month over month so far in 2025:
| Month | TFWP Permits | IMP Permits |
|---|---|---|
| January | 3,895 | 11,005 |
| February | 3,320 | 11,070 |
| March | 4,795 | 13,750 |
| April | 7,750 | 15,890 |
| May | 7,470 | 16,205 |
| June | 6,470 | 17,555 |
| July | 5,420 | 13,030 |
| August | 4,195 | 12,695 |
| Total | 43,315 | 111,200 |
Admissions peaked between April and June, which is consistent with past seasonal patterns. But even with strong spring numbers, it’s clear we’re tracking well below where we should be.
How Projections Were Calculated
To estimate the likely year-end totals for 2025, projections were based on the distribution of foreign worker arrivals in 2024. That year, 72.6% of TFWP and 77.6% of IMP permits were issued between January and August.
Applying the same seasonal ratio to 2025 numbers yields these projections:
| Program | Projected 2025 Total | 2025 Target | Shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| TFWP | 59,679 | 82,000 | -22,321 |
| IMP | 143,244 | 285,750 | -142,506 |
| Total | 202,923 | 367,750 | -164,827 |
Closer to 2026 Targets
Interestingly, this projected total of just over 202,000 aligns far more closely with Canada’s immigration targets for 2026, which are set at 230,000 total foreign workers—60,000 under the TFWP and 170,000 under the IMP.
That means Canada may be hitting 2026 benchmarks a full year early, and even falling slightly short of them.
Why Is This Happening?
The drop in foreign worker numbers isn’t random. It’s the result of a strategic shift in immigration policy by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) aimed at managing population growth, housing demand, and labour market balance.
Here are some of the major changes contributing to lower arrival numbers:
- Moratoriums on low-wage LMIA processing in regions with high unemployment
- Higher wage thresholds for high-wage TFWP positions
- Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility restrictions, limiting permits to select fields of study
- Language requirements for PGWP applicants
- Rollbacks of COVID-era policies that made it easier for visitors to get work permits
- Narrower criteria for Intra-Company Transfers, especially around “specialized knowledge” roles
- Introduction of multi-year targets to better manage work permit issuance
- Tighter rules for spousal open work permits for both international students and foreign workers
All of these measures are part of IRCC’s broader goal of bringing the proportion of temporary residents—international students and foreign workers combined—down to 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027.
What This Means for Canada’s Economy and Housing Market
While some critics worry about the long-term effects of reduced labour supply, there are already some observable benefits—particularly in the housing sector.
According to a recent TD Economics report, lowering the number of temporary residents has helped ease pressure on rental markets. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) also reported negative growth in rental asking prices in key cities like Toronto and Vancouver.
Additionally, the slowdown in foreign worker arrivals may be contributing to reduced upward pressure on unemployment rates, as job competition eases slightly in some sectors.
Final Thoughts
Canada has made a clear policy pivot when it comes to temporary immigration, particularly for foreign workers. While these changes may help address housing affordability and economic balance, they also raise important questions about labour shortages and how industries that rely on temporary foreign workers will adapt.
For those keeping an eye on immigration pathways, whether you’re an applicant, employer, or newcomer to Canada, it’s critical to stay informed as policies continue to evolve.
Want to explore your options through one of Canada’s permanent immigration streams? If you’re considering Manitoba, check out our Manitoba PNP points calculator to see where you stand.
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