Canada Immigration 2025: PNP Cuts & PR Targets Missed

Canada on Track to Miss 2025 Permanent Resident Admissions Target: Here’s What’s Happening

Canada has long been recognized as a welcoming destination for newcomers, but recent trends suggest a shift in momentum. With just four months left in 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is projected to fall significantly short of its annual permanent resident (PR) admissions target. Let’s explore what’s going on, why it matters, and what this could mean for future applicants.

Key Highlights

• Canada is expected to fall short of its 2025 PR admissions target by over 43,000 newcomers.
• Only 70% of the annual PR target has been reached by the end of Q3 2025, down from 78%+ in previous years.
• The federal government has reduced overall PR admissions and Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations.
• Several PNP streams have been suspended or closed due to lower nomination caps.
• Fewer Invitations to Apply (ITAs) have been issued through Express Entry in 2025.
• Restrictions on temporary residents are limiting the future pool of PR candidates.

Canada’s 2025 Immigration Numbers: Falling Short of the Goal

From January to August 2025, Canada welcomed 276,870 new permanent residents. To meet the year’s planned target of 395,000, more than 118,000 would need to be admitted in just four months—a tall order.

Based on current trends and historical data, IRCC is projected to admit around 351,938 newcomers in 2025. That’s approximately 43,000 short of its target, or about an 11% shortfall. This marks a noticeable slowdown in the pace of immigration when compared to 2023 and 2024.

How We Got These Numbers

Looking at past years, about 78% of annual PR admissions typically occur in the first three quarters. Here’s a breakdown:

Assuming a similar pattern in 2025, we’d expect around 352,000 total PRs by year-end—well below the 395,000 target.

Percentage of Target Achieved by Q3

Clearly, the pace of PR admissions has slowed in 2025, both in absolute numbers and as a share of the annual target.

Why Are PR Admissions Slowing Down?

There are several reasons behind Canada’s reduced immigration intake in 2025, many of which stem from deliberate policy changes at both the federal and provincial levels. Here’s what we’re seeing:

1. Lower Federal Immigration Targets

In the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, the federal government set the PR target at 395,000—down a full 90,000 from the 2024 target of 485,000. This reflects a broader shift toward capping immigration levels at below 1% of Canada’s population beyond 2027.

2. Sharp Cuts to Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs)

One of the most significant changes has been a 50% reduction in PNP allocations. In 2024, provinces had space to nominate up to 110,000 candidates for PR. In 2025, that number dropped to just 55,000. While some provinces negotiated small increases, the totals still fall short compared to last year.

This has led to smaller PNP draws across Canada, impacting thousands of potential applicants. If you’re considering the PNP route, tools like our Manitoba PNP Points Calculator can help assess your eligibility based on the latest criteria.

3. PNP Stream Suspensions and Closures

The reduced allocations have forced many provinces to pause or shut down nomination streams altogether. Here are some notable examples:

• British Columbia: Closed its International Graduate and Post-Graduate streams, and delayed launching new student-focused streams.
• Saskatchewan: Shut down all Entrepreneur and Farm streams.
• Ontario: Closed the Entrepreneur stream and suspended the Express Entry Skilled Trades stream.
• New Brunswick: Ended the NB Student Connection pathway.

Other provinces have introduced stricter criteria, targeted industry-specific occupations, or paused application intake altogether.

4. Fewer Express Entry Invitations

Express Entry—Canada’s flagship economic immigration system—has also seen changes. From January to October 2025, IRCC issued 81,485 Invitations to Apply (ITAs), compared to 90,835 in the same period in 2024. That’s a drop of 9,350 ITAs.

Notably, there have been no STEM (science, tech, engineering, math) category-based draws in 2025 so far, whereas 4,500 ITAs were issued in this category in 2024. Fewer ITAs mean fewer candidates moving forward in the PR process, especially when you consider that each ITA often includes spouses and dependents as part of the application.

5. Restrictions on Temporary Residents

Temporary residents—international students, foreign workers, and visitors—often transition to permanent residency. However, the federal government is tightening rules here too, aiming to reduce temporary resident numbers to under 5% of the total population by 2027. Here’s how:

• Restricting spousal open work permits for international students and temporary foreign workers.
• Limiting the number of study permits issued annually.
• Adding stricter language and program requirements for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs).
• Pausing Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) processing in regions with high unemployment rates.

These measures reduce the pipeline of future PR applicants, further reinforcing the downward trend in admissions.

What This Means for Future Immigrants

If you’re planning to immigrate to Canada, it’s essential to stay informed and flexible. With fewer spots available and more competition, it’s more important than ever to make sure your application is strong and aligned with current priorities—whether that’s through Express Entry, a PNP, or another stream.

Get ahead by researching your best options, preparing your documents early, and staying on top of changes to immigration policy. Our site has helpful tools like the Manitoba PNP Points Calculator to help you figure out where you stand.

Final Thoughts

While Canada remains committed to immigration, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of recalibration. Lower PR targets, cuts to PNPs, and a scaled-back Express Entry system all point to a more cautious approach from the government. If you’re hoping to make Canada your home, now’s the time to get prepared, stay adaptable, and consider all your options.

Want to see if you’re eligible for Canadian immigration? Start your assessment here to explore your pathways to permanent residency.