Top-Scoring Express Entry Profiles Decline by Half
Recent federal immigration data indicate a sharp reduction in the number of high-ranking Express Entry profiles, with nearly 50% fewer candidates scoring above 500 points under the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) compared with two weeks earlier.
The decline follows multiple Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) draws that issued thousands of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) in mid-February. The latest figures suggest that high-scoring profiles are being selected more quickly than new ones are entering the pool.
The shift is significant for both federal and provincial immigration pathways, including programs such as the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program, which often rely on Express Entry-linked streams to identify qualified candidates.
- Express Entry pool shows a marked drop in top-ranking profiles between February 2 and February 15, 2026.
- IRCC conducted a PNP draw on February 16 (cut-off 789) and a Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draw on February 17 (cut-off 508).
- Estimated 11,000 candidates now have CRS scores above 501, down from over 15,000 earlier in the month.
- Lower CRS cut-offs have accompanied increased ITA issuance since January 2026.
- IRCC has distributed 20,000 CEC ITAs so far in 2026, roughly 18% of the year’s Federal High Skilled target.
Express Entry and CRS Overview
Canada’s Express Entry system is the primary selection mechanism for skilled immigration programs under the Federal High Skilled (FHS) category. Candidates are ranked using the Comprehensive Ranking System, which assigns points based on factors such as age, education, work experience, and language ability.
Profiles with the highest CRS scores are periodically invited to apply for permanent residence through category-based or program-specific draws conducted by IRCC.
Recent Data from February 2026
According to IRCC’s pool distribution data, there were 14,911 profiles with CRS scores between 501 and 600 and 423 profiles between 601 and 1200 on February 2, 2026. By February 15, the number of candidates in the 501–600 range had risen slightly to 16,559, while those in the 601–1200 range dropped to 280.
Subsequent draws on February 16 and 17 reduced the high-scoring pool considerably. The February 16 Provincial Nominee Program draw issued 279 invitations with a minimum score of 789. The following day, a Canadian Experience Class draw invited 6,000 candidates with a cut-off of 508.
Estimated Pool Composition After February 17
Based on the official distribution as of February 15 and the number of invitations issued since, analysts estimate that the number of profiles scoring 501 or higher now stands near 11,000. This represents a substantial decline from early February, when roughly 15,000 to 16,000 such profiles were present.
While the figure is only an approximation, the data suggest that ITA issuance has surpassed the rate at which new top-tier profiles are entering the pool.
Draw Trends and CRS Cut-Offs
Recent Canadian Experience Class draws have shown a gradual decline in CRS cut-off scores. Since January 2025, IRCC has lowered thresholds several times, with February’s 508 cut-off being among the lowest in recent months. The last CEC draw below 510 occurred on September 19, 2024.
This trend indicates that higher volumes of invitations are being extended even as the pool of high-scoring candidates diminishes. The dynamic has led to shorter intervals between draws and potentially more balanced distribution across categories.
IRCC Draw Volume and Targets
As of mid-February 2026, IRCC had issued 20,000 invitations to Canadian Experience Class candidates, accounting for approximately 18% of the 109,000 Federal High Skilled landings targeted for the year. By comparison, by late February 2025, only 9,350 CEC invitations had been issued, or about 7.5% of that year’s FHS target.
The accelerated pace of ITA issuance reflects IRCC’s ongoing efforts to align intake with 2026 immigration levels, while simultaneously managing candidate distribution across Express Entry-managed programs.
Background and Provincial Impact
Express Entry serves as a key recruitment channel for both federal and provincial immigration systems. Provinces such as Manitoba, Ontario, and Alberta routinely issue invitations to candidates in the federal pool who meet local labour market criteria. The Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program remains among the active users of this system, nominating candidates with federal Express Entry profiles for provincial selection.
Fluctuations in CRS distribution can therefore affect provincial nomination patterns, particularly for regions seeking to attract candidates with recent Canadian work experience or education.
Statistical Overview
The combined number of profiles scoring 501 and above fell from 15,334 on February 2 to an estimated 11,000 after February 17, indicating a roughly 28% reduction within two weeks. Meanwhile, the number of profiles with 601–1200 points—a range that typically includes provincial nominees—dropped by more than one-third during the same period.
These shifts align with a period of increased invitation activity and lower cut-off scores in early 2026, marking a notable adjustment in the composition of the Express Entry pool.
Outlook
IRCC has not yet confirmed the schedule for upcoming Express Entry draws. However, the current pace of invitations suggests ongoing responsiveness to the government’s 2026 immigration plan. Monitoring the distribution of CRS scores will remain important for understanding how quickly new high-ranking candidates enter the system.
Further updates are expected as new data on pool composition and draw results become available through IRCC’s official publications.
For continued coverage of Canadian immigration trends and program statistics, explore related updates across federal and provincial nominee categories.