Canada TFWP Update 2025: Foreign Worker Numbers Decline

What’s Really Happening with Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Permits in 2025?

Key Highlights:
• Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre claims the government exceeded its TFWP “cap” — but that claim is misleading.
• The 82,000 figure is a target for new arrivals, not a hard cap on total work permits.
• Only 33,722 new foreign workers entered Canada in the first half of 2025 — well below the annual target.
• Canada has seen a sharp 50% drop in temporary resident arrivals in 2025 compared to 2024.
• The government has implemented multiple reforms to slow the growth of temporary residents.
• There are no current plans to eliminate the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), though more changes may be coming.

Introduction

If you’ve been keeping an eye on Canadian immigration news lately, you might’ve caught wind of a heated political claim. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre recently accused the federal government of blowing past its own “cap” on Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) permits for 2025. Sounds like a big deal, right? But when you dig into the numbers and context, the story isn’t quite what it seems.

Let’s break it down together — in plain language — so we can separate fact from fiction and better understand what’s really happening with foreign worker permits in Canada.

Did the Government Really Exceed the TFWP Cap?

According to Poilievre, the Liberal government issued 105,000 new Temporary Foreign Worker permits in just the first six months of 2025. On the surface, that seems like it would surpass the government’s stated “cap” of 82,000.

But here’s the catch: that 82,000 figure isn’t a hard cap. It’s actually a target — more specifically, a target for *net new arrivals* under the TFWP for the entire year. That means it only includes foreign nationals arriving from outside Canada to begin new jobs, not folks already in the country renewing or extending their permits.

Of the 105,000 work permits issued from January to June 2025, only around 33,722 — or roughly 41% — were for new arrivals, according to Immigration Minister Lena Diab. So, in reality, Canada is well within the 82,000 target when it comes to fresh entries under the TFWP.

Temporary Resident Arrivals Are Actually Down in 2025

Despite the political noise, the broader trend shows a sharp decline in temporary resident arrivals — not an increase.

Between January and June 2025, Canada welcomed 125,903 fewer foreign workers compared to the same period in 2024. That’s a 50% drop. These numbers are consistent with the government’s commitment to reduce temporary residents to just 5% of the total population by the end of 2026.

So, What Changed?

Beginning in early 2024, Ottawa introduced several key reforms aimed at tightening the flow of temporary foreign workers. These changes include:

• Shortening LMIA validity — From 12 months down to 6 months.
• Reducing employer workforce caps — From 30% to 20% (excluding critical sectors like healthcare and construction).
• Lowering low-wage stream caps — From 20% to 10%, and shortening job duration from two years to one.
• Pausing low-wage LMIA processing — In metro areas with an unemployment rate above 6%.
• Raising wage requirements — Employers hiring via the high-wage stream must now pay 20% above the provincial/territorial median wage.
• Stricter business verification — Employers must now pass a job offer assessment instead of relying solely on professional attestations.

Taken together, these measures are designed to slow the entry of temporary workers while ensuring better job opportunities for Canadians and permanent residents.

Quick Refresher: What Is the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)?

The TFWP has been around since 1973. It’s a program that allows Canadian employers to hire foreign nationals when no Canadians are available to fill specific jobs. The program is managed by both Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC).

Before bringing in a foreign worker, employers need to get a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) — a document that shows hiring a foreign worker won’t take a job away from Canadians.

TFWP Streams Explained

Employers have to apply under the right stream of the program, depending on the nature of the job:

Employer Requirements

To be eligible for an LMIA, employers must:

• Be in good standing with TFWP rules (no violations).
• Follow mandatory job advertising — including posting on the Government of Canada Job Bank and two other platforms.
• Prove they tried to hire Canadians before turning to foreign workers.

Once all criteria are met, the employer can submit the LMIA application and pay the required processing fee.

What’s Next for the TFWP?

So, is the TFWP here to stay? According to Prime Minister Mark Carney: yes — at least for now.

While acknowledging that the program is under review, Carney emphasized that TFWs are not the biggest contributor to overall immigration numbers. He also noted that many Canadian businesses — especially in provinces like Quebec — depend on the program to stay competitive.

“When I talk to businesses across Canada,” Carney said, “access to temporary foreign workers is consistently one of their top concerns.”

That suggests reforms may continue, but the program itself isn’t likely to disappear anytime soon.

Final Thoughts

There’s a lot of noise out there about Canada’s immigration numbers — and it’s easy to get confused. But when it comes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, the data tells a more nuanced story. While political critics point fingers, the reality is that the number of new foreign workers entering Canada is actually down, not up.

If you’re curious about other immigration pathways — including how to move to Canada permanently — check out our guide on the Manitoba PNP for more insights.

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